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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ian Machado Garry won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1520

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Daniel RodriguezvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:57

Style matchupDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Rodriguez

Red Corner

Ian Machado Garry

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1520

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Ian Machado GarryW2 streak

oldest →

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RodriguezMetricIan Machado Garry

7.20

Strikes / min

4.78

5.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.92

64%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80evenly matched on net striking+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel RodriguezIan Machado Garry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.4|Blue +20.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RodriguezTargetIan Machado Garry

By target zone

12% acc · 29%

Head

45% acc · 83%

40% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 43%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 52%

Clinch

Ground

61% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

even

Ian Machado Garry rounds

Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 25

Sig Strikes

23 / 46

28%

Sig Str %

50%

7 / 25

Total Strikes

23 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ian Machado Garry	23 / 46	23 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Rodriguez	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 0	0

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8