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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1520

Elo1505

Daniel RodriguezvsGabe GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsGabe Green: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Daniel Rodriguez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gabe Green (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Rodriguez

Red Corner

Gabe Green

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1520

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Gabe Green

oldest →

vs Philip Rowe · Feb 21

KOvs Yohan Lainesse · Apr 22

vs Ian Garry · Jul 22

KOvs Bryan Battle · May 23

SUBvs Matheus Camilo · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RodriguezMetricGabe Green

7.20

Strikes / min

5.60

5.40

Strikes absorbed / min

6.19

57%

Strike defense

47%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.71

64%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel RodriguezGabe Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Gabe Green(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RodriguezTargetGabe Green

By target zone

139

46% acc · 79%

Head

31% acc · 48%

82% acc · 15%

Body

88% acc · 40%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 12%

By position

169

50% acc · 97%

Distance

125

46% acc · 98%

80% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

even

Gabe Green rounds

Round 1Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes80

Takedowns1

Control0:27

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

175 / 344

Sig Strikes

127 / 273

50%

Sig Str %

45.3%

175 / 345

Total Strikes

127 / 273

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabe Green	26 / 68	26 / 68	0 / 0
1	Daniel Rodriguez	34 / 72	34 / 72	0 / 0
2	Gabe Green	43 / 85	43 / 85	0 / 0
2	Daniel Rodriguez	61 / 114	61 / 115	0 / 0
3	Gabe Green	58 / 120	58 / 120	0 / 0
3	Daniel Rodriguez	80 / 158	80 / 158	1 / 1

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Gabe Green

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6