← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · KO/TKO

Elo1520

Elo1430

Daniel RodriguezvsDwight GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Saturday, August 22, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsDwight Grant: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dwight Grant enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dwight Grant (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Rodriguez

Red Corner

Dwight Grant

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1520

Elo

1430

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Dwight GrantL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alan Jouban · Apr 19

vs Stefan Sekulic · Apr 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Oct 21

KOvs Sergey Khandozhko · Apr 22

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RodriguezMetricDwight Grant

7.20

Strikes / min

3.29

5.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

57%

Strike defense

60%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.61

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel RodriguezDwight Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Dwight Grant(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.7|Blue -90.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -413.0|Blue +413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RodriguezTargetDwight Grant

By target zone

38% acc · 67%

Head

41% acc · 83%

75% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

60% acc · 10%

By position

41% acc · 73%

Distance

54% acc · 43%

Clinch

80% acc · 27%

Ground

39% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

even

Dwight Grant rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns3

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 32

Sig Strikes

30 / 68

46%

Sig Str %

44%

15 / 32

Total Strikes

31 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dwight Grant	30 / 68	31 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Rodriguez	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 0	0

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Dwight Grant

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8