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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1520

Elo1478

Daniel RodriguezvsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Rodriguez has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Rodriguez

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1520

Elo

1478

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Alex MoronoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 23

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RodriguezMetricAlex Morono

7.20

Strikes / min

4.90

5.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.32

64%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel RodriguezAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.8|Blue -42.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RodriguezTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

29% acc · 36%

Head

25% acc · 78%

70% acc · 46%

Body

43% acc · 12%

96% acc · 19%

Leg

88% acc · 9%

By position

117

47% acc · 95%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns1

Control0:56

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

123 / 257

Sig Strikes

74 / 257

46.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

126 / 260

Total Strikes

91 / 276

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Morono	31 / 81	31 / 81	0 / 0
1	Daniel Rodriguez	25 / 56	25 / 56	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	23 / 91	23 / 91	0 / 0
2	Daniel Rodriguez	44 / 99	44 / 99	0 / 0
3	Alex Morono	20 / 85	37 / 104	0 / 1
3	Daniel Rodriguez	54 / 102	57 / 105	1 / 1

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23