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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Roberts won · SUB R1

Elo1351

Elo1490

Daniel RobertsvsGreg SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Roberts won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:45

Style matchupDaniel Roberts: WrestlervsGreg Soto: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Daniel Roberts wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Daniel Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Roberts at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Roberts threatens submissions; Greg Soto has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Roberts

Red Corner

Greg Soto

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Forrest Petz · Jul 10

SUBvs Mike Guymon · Oct 10

vs Claude Patrick · Apr 11

vs Rich Attonito · Jun 11

vs Charlie Brenneman · Jan 12

latest

Greg Soto

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Mar 10

vs Nick Osipczak · Aug 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RobertsMetricGreg Soto

0.73

Strikes / min

3.21

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

46%

Strike defense

52%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

1.49

40%

Takedown defense

44%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.54Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel RobertsGreg Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Roberts(7 fights)Greg Soto(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.9|Blue +138.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RobertsTargetGreg Soto

By target zone

23% acc · 100%

Head

45% acc · 83%

Body

50% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

22% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Roberts rounds

even

Greg Soto rounds

Round 1Daniel Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:46

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 13

Sig Strikes

6 / 13

23%

Sig Str %

46%

8 / 22

Total Strikes

6 / 13

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:46

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Greg Soto	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	1
1	Daniel Roberts	3 / 13	8 / 22	1 / 2	2

Daniel Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Greg Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3