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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Claude Patrick won · U-DEC R3
Elo1351
Daniel Roberts
Elo1490

Daniel RobertsvsClaude PatrickUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Claude Patrick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Roberts: WrestlervsClaude Patrick: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Claude Patrick wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Claude Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claude Patrick at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Claude Patrick has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Claude Patrick has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Roberts
Red Corner
VS
Claude Patrick
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1351
Elo
1490
45
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RobertsL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Forrest Petz · Jul 10
W
SUBvs Mike Guymon · Oct 10
W
SUBvs Greg Soto · Jan 11
L
vs Rich Attonito · Jun 11
L
vs Charlie Brenneman · Jan 12
latest
Claude Patrick
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 10
W
vs James Wilks · Oct 10
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Dec 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RobertsMetricClaude Patrick
0.73
Strikes / min
1.80
2.27
Strikes absorbed / min
0.89
46%
Strike defense
69%
2.46
TDs / 15 min
2.32
40%
Takedown defense
84%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.54Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1538 vs 1537Strikes4.3 vs 18.0Takedowns2.3 vs 2.0Sub Atts1.50 vs 1.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
Daniel RobertsClaude Patrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Daniel Roberts(7 fights)Claude Patrick(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.9|Blue +138.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RobertsTargetClaude Patrick

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
13
30% acc · 45%
3
50% acc · 50%
Body
8
89% acc · 28%
3
33% acc · 50%
Leg
8
89% acc · 28%

By position

5
7% acc · 83%
Distance
13
33% acc · 45%
1
25% acc · 17%
Clinch
15
71% acc · 52%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daniel Roberts rounds
1
even
2
Claude Patrick rounds
Round 1Claude Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:27
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:51Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:32
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 3Claude Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control1:10
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 79
Sig Strikes
29 / 62
6.7%
Sig Str %
45.3%
31 / 111
Total Strikes
51 / 85
1 / 4
TDs
4 / 5
50%
TD %
83.3%
1
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
0
4:09
Ctrl Time
4:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Claude Patrick14 / 2517 / 282 / 20
1Daniel Roberts1 / 177 / 230 / 00
2Claude Patrick8 / 1915 / 261 / 20
2Daniel Roberts3 / 2817 / 461 / 11
3Claude Patrick7 / 1819 / 311 / 11
3Daniel Roberts2 / 347 / 420 / 30

Daniel Roberts

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7

Claude Patrick

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4