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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Pineda won · SUB R2

Elo1489

Elo1465

Daniel PinedavsTucker LutzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Pineda won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:50

Style matchupDaniel Pineda: Submission grapplervsTucker Lutz: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Tucker Lutz wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tucker Lutz at -310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Tucker Lutz has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tucker Lutz has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Pineda

Red Corner

Tucker Lutz

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1489

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel PinedaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Tucker LutzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21

vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel PinedaMetricTucker Lutz

2.85

Strikes / min

3.74

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

45%

Strike defense

44%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

1.99

54%

Takedown defense

69%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel PinedaTucker Lutz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Pineda(10 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.3|Blue -24.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +343.0|Blue -343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel PinedaTargetTucker Lutz

By target zone

42% acc · 42%

Head

28% acc · 61%

40% acc · 17%

Body

73% acc · 29%

91% acc · 42%

Leg

50% acc · 11%

By position

54% acc · 92%

Distance

31% acc · 79%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

86% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Pineda rounds

even

Tucker Lutz rounds

Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:50

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:30

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 45

Sig Strikes

28 / 78

53%

Sig Str %

33%

41 / 66

Total Strikes

33 / 84

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 4

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:20

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tucker Lutz	24 / 65	29 / 71	0 / 2	0
1	Daniel Pineda	17 / 32	28 / 45	1 / 2	0
2	Tucker Lutz	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 2	0
2	Daniel Pineda	7 / 13	13 / 21	0 / 0	2

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Tucker Lutz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4