Featherweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Pineda won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1351

Daniel PinedavsPat SchillingUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Pineda won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:37

Model Prediction: Pat Schilling wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Schilling at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Pat Schilling has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Daniel Pineda has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Pineda

Red Corner

Pat Schilling

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1489

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Pat Schilling

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel PinedaMetricPat Schilling

2.85

Strikes / min

1.87

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

8.24

45%

Strike defense

52%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.00

54%

Takedown defense

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 5.96 — meaningful gap-6.37

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Pineda(10 fights)Pat Schilling(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.6|Blue -137.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel PinedaTargetPat Schilling

By target zone

76% acc · 84%

Head

50% acc · 75%

100% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

67% acc · 42%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

92% acc · 58%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Pineda rounds

even

Pat Schilling rounds

Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:45

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 24

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

79%

Sig Str %

57%

38 / 44

Total Strikes

4 / 7

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pat Schilling	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Pineda	19 / 24	38 / 44	1 / 1	1

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Pat Schilling

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2