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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1495

Daniel OmielanczukvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Saturday, July 8, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Omielanczuk: Well-roundedvsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -640 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Omielanczuk is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Daniel Omielanczuk has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Omielanczuk (53.5%).
Curtis Blaydes has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Omielanczuk

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

+470

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-640

(86%)

1361

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel OmielanczukL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris de la Rocha · Jul 15

vs Jarjis Danho · Feb 16

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 16

SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 16

DECvs Tim Johnson · Mar 17

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel OmielanczukMetricCurtis Blaydes

3.09

Strikes / min

4.18

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

47%

Strike defense

53%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

5.12

68%

Takedown defense

35%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.20Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel OmielanczukCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Omielanczuk(9 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.5|Blue +134.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel OmielanczukTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

28% acc · 57%

Head

30% acc · 57%

85% acc · 33%

Body

92% acc · 32%

71% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

32% acc · 71%

Distance

30% acc · 54%

79% acc · 29%

Clinch

77% acc · 28%

Ground

100% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Omielanczuk rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 132

Sig Strikes

72 / 168

38.7%

Sig Str %

42%

68 / 149

Total Strikes

94 / 194

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 13

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

5:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Curtis Blaydes	17 / 38	31 / 54	0 / 6
1	Daniel Omielanczuk	16 / 35	27 / 46	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	21 / 57	28 / 66	0 / 4
2	Daniel Omielanczuk	15 / 46	20 / 51	0 / 0
3	Curtis Blaydes	34 / 73	35 / 74	0 / 3
3	Daniel Omielanczuk	20 / 51	21 / 52	0 / 1

Daniel Omielanczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19