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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Omielanczuk won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1361

Elo1491

Daniel OmielanczukvsChris de la RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Daniel Omielanczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:48

Style matchupDaniel Omielanczuk: Well-roundedvsChris de la Rocha: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daniel Omielanczuk wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Daniel Omielanczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Omielanczuk at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Omielanczuk enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Omielanczuk is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris de la Rocha has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Daniel Omielanczuk has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Omielanczuk (53.5%).
Chris de la Rocha has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Omielanczuk

Red Corner

Chris de la Rocha

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1361

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel OmielanczukL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jarjis Danho · Feb 16

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 16

SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 16

DECvs Tim Johnson · Mar 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 17

latest

Chris de la Rocha

oldest →

KOvs Adam Milstead · May 16

KOvs Rashad Coulter · Jun 18

KOvs Juan Adams · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel OmielanczukMetricChris de la Rocha

3.09

Strikes / min

4.08

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

6.37

47%

Strike defense

43%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

2.02

68%

Takedown defense

33%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.20Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-2.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel OmielanczukChris de la Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Omielanczuk(9 fights)Chris de la Rocha(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.4|Blue +130.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel OmielanczukTargetChris de la Rocha

By target zone

74% acc · 93%

Head

9% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

0% acc

By position

78% acc · 93%

Distance

8% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Omielanczuk rounds

even

Chris de la Rocha rounds

Round 1Daniel Omielanczuk edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 20

Sig Strikes

1 / 12

75%

Sig Str %

15 / 20

Total Strikes

1 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris de la Rocha	1 / 12	1 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Omielanczuk	15 / 20	15 / 20	0 / 0	0

Daniel Omielanczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Chris de la Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4