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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Victor Altamirano won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1490

Daniel LacerdavsVictor AltamiranoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Victor Altamirano won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:39

Style matchupDaniel Lacerda: WrestlervsVictor Altamirano: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Daniel Lacerda wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Victor Altamirano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Lacerda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Victor Altamirano enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Victor Altamirano is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Lacerda has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Victor Altamirano has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Victor Altamirano has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Lacerda

Red Corner

Victor Altamirano

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1483

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel LacerdaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeff Molina · Oct 21

SUBvs Francisco Figueiredo · Apr 22

KOvs CJ Vergara · Mar 23

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Feb 24

latest

Victor AltamiranoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Feb 22

vs Vinicius Salvador · Mar 23

vs Tim Elliott · Jun 23

vs Felipe dos Santos · Feb 24

vs Daniel Barez · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel LacerdaMetricVictor Altamirano

3.95

Strikes / min

4.58

8.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

34%

Strike defense

53%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

2.88

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-4.33Δ 5.09 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel LacerdaVictor Altamirano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Lacerda(5 fights)Victor Altamirano(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.2|Blue +7.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel LacerdaTargetVictor Altamirano

By target zone

39% acc · 64%

Head

68% acc · 83%

75% acc · 14%

Body

90% acc · 16%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

48% acc · 73%

Distance

54% acc · 26%

33% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

67% acc · 18%

Ground

77% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Lacerda rounds

even

Victor Altamirano rounds

Round 1Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 45

Sig Strikes

58 / 83

48%

Sig Str %

69%

27 / 51

Total Strikes

94 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Victor Altamirano	58 / 83	94 / 123	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Lacerda	22 / 45	27 / 51	0 / 0	0

Daniel Lacerda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Victor Altamirano

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6