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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Figueiredo won · SUB R1

Elo1483

Elo1495

Daniel LacerdavsFrancisco FigueiredoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Figueiredo won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:18

Style matchupDaniel Lacerda: WrestlervsFrancisco Figueiredo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Daniel Lacerda wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Francisco Figueiredo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Lacerda at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Lacerda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Francisco Figueiredo threatens submissions; Daniel Lacerda has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Francisco Figueiredo has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francisco Figueiredo has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Lacerda (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Lacerda

Red Corner

Francisco Figueiredo

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1483

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel LacerdaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeff Molina · Oct 21

KOvs Victor Altamirano · Aug 22

KOvs CJ Vergara · Mar 23

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Feb 24

latest

Francisco FigueiredoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jerome Rivera · Jan 21

vs Malcolm Gordon · Jul 21

SUBvs Amir Albazi · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel LacerdaMetricFrancisco Figueiredo

3.95

Strikes / min

2.04

8.28

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

34%

Strike defense

61%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

2.51

Takedown defense

76%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-4.33Δ 3.78 — meaningful gap-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel LacerdaFrancisco Figueiredo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Lacerda(5 fights)Francisco Figueiredo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.8|Blue +12.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel LacerdaTargetFrancisco Figueiredo

By target zone

33% acc · 25%

Head

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 80%

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Lacerda rounds

even

Francisco Figueiredo rounds

Round 1Daniel Lacerda edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:28

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

5 / 5

66%

Sig Str %

100%

5 / 7

Total Strikes

5 / 5

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Figueiredo	5 / 5	5 / 5	0 / 0	1
1	Daniel Lacerda	4 / 6	5 / 7	1 / 1	0

Daniel Lacerda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Francisco Figueiredo

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4