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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tom Breese won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1366
Elo1493

Daniel KellyvsTom BreeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · Sunday, May 27, 2018Liverpool, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Breese won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:33

Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsTom Breese: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Kelly at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Tom Breese
Blue Corner
+315
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-380
(79%)
1366
Elo
1493
48
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel KellyL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16
W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16
W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17
latest
Tom Breese
oldest →
W
vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16
L
KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20
W
KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20
L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel KellyMetricTom Breese
3.62
Strikes / min
3.34
4.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
61%
Strike defense
60%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
78%
Takedown defense
70%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.02Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1545 vs 1537Strikes38.2 vs 35.8Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.22 vs 0.25Form-0.2 vs 0.3
Daniel KellyTom Breese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -127.4|Blue +127.4
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -532.0|Blue +532.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel KellyTargetTom Breese

By target zone

1
5% acc · 17%
Head
21
51% acc · 91%
1
33% acc · 17%
Body
2
67% acc · 9%
4
67% acc · 67%
Leg
0

By position

6
21% acc · 100%
Distance
22
52% acc · 96%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daniel Kelly rounds
0
even
1
Tom Breese rounds
Round 1Tom Breese edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 28
Sig Strikes
23 / 44
21%
Sig Str %
52%
6 / 28
Total Strikes
23 / 44
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tom Breese23 / 4423 / 440 / 00
1Daniel Kelly6 / 286 / 280 / 00

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8