Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Kelly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1356

Daniel KellyvsSteve MontgomeryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Daniel Kelly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsSteve Montgomery: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Kelly at +230 American odds

+$230 profit

$330 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Kelly has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steve Montgomery has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Kelly

Red Corner

Steve Montgomery

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1366

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Steve Montgomery

oldest →

KOvs Tony Sims · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel KellyMetricSteve Montgomery

3.62

Strikes / min

4.85

4.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.12

61%

Strike defense

47%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

0.00

78%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.02Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel KellySteve Montgomery

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Steve Montgomery(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.9|Blue -9.9

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel KellyTargetSteve Montgomery

By target zone

49% acc · 89%

Head

31% acc · 65%

100% acc · 8%

Body

86% acc · 31%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 4%

By position

39% acc · 48%

Distance

31% acc · 65%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

89% acc · 32%

72% acc · 37%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Kelly rounds

even

Steve Montgomery rounds

Round 1Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns3

Control3:33

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Steve Montgomery edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:58

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control2:24

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 121

Sig Strikes

77 / 191

50.7%

Sig Str %

36%

115 / 176

Total Strikes

89 / 204

5 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

47%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:55

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Montgomery	7 / 34	8 / 35	0 / 0
1	Daniel Kelly	25 / 43	55 / 74	3 / 3
2	Steve Montgomery	42 / 89	47 / 94	0 / 0
2	Daniel Kelly	12 / 29	19 / 36	1 / 6
3	Steve Montgomery	28 / 68	34 / 75	0 / 0
3	Daniel Kelly	26 / 49	41 / 66	1 / 4

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Steve Montgomery

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach—

Fights2