Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1366

Elo1431

Daniel KellyvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:49

Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsSam Alvey: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Kelly at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Sam Alvey has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Kelly

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1366

Elo

1431

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel KellyMetricSam Alvey

3.62

Strikes / min

3.28

4.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

61%

Strike defense

52%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

0.06

78%

Takedown defense

82%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel KellySam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.0|Blue +65.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel KellyTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

62% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 75%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Kelly rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 8

Sig Strikes

8 / 13

25%

Sig Str %

61%

2 / 8

Total Strikes

8 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Alvey	8 / 13	8 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Kelly	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0	0

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23