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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Kelly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1490

Daniel KellyvsPatrick WalshUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Kelly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsPatrick Walsh: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Patrick Walsh wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Walsh at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Patrick Walsh has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Kelly

Red Corner

Patrick Walsh

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1366

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Patrick Walsh

oldest →

vs Daniel Spohn · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel KellyMetricPatrick Walsh

3.62

Strikes / min

2.03

4.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

61%

Strike defense

64%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

3.00

78%

Takedown defense

100%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel KellyPatrick Walsh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Patrick Walsh(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.8|Blue +124.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -124.0|Blue +124.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel KellyTargetPatrick Walsh

By target zone

32% acc · 97%

Head

17% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Body

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Kelly rounds

even

Patrick Walsh rounds

Round 1Patrick Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Patrick Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 190

Sig Strikes

50 / 296

31.7%

Sig Str %

16.7%

61 / 190

Total Strikes

52 / 298

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Patrick Walsh	15 / 84	17 / 86	1 / 1
1	Daniel Kelly	16 / 50	16 / 50	0 / 0
2	Patrick Walsh	26 / 102	26 / 102	0 / 2
2	Daniel Kelly	22 / 65	22 / 65	0 / 0
3	Patrick Walsh	9 / 110	9 / 110	0 / 1
3	Daniel Kelly	23 / 75	23 / 75	0 / 0

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Patrick Walsh

Stance—

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2