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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Kelly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1360

Daniel KellyvsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Daniel Kelly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Chris Camozzi wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Camozzi at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Kelly has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
Chris Camozzi has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Kelly

Red Corner

Chris Camozzi

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1366

Elo

1360

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Chris CamozziL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Aug 15

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel KellyMetricChris Camozzi

3.62

Strikes / min

3.57

4.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

61%

Strike defense

56%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

0.27

78%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.02Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel KellyChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.1|Blue -5.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel KellyTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

37% acc · 92%

Head

45% acc · 86%

67% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

34% acc · 82%

Distance

48% acc · 96%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

83% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Kelly rounds

even

Chris Camozzi rounds

Round 1Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control0:45

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:13

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:46

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 102

Sig Strikes

56 / 115

40%

Sig Str %

40%

84 / 157

Total Strikes

66 / 127

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:44

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Camozzi	33 / 61	34 / 62	0 / 0
1	Daniel Kelly	16 / 45	24 / 53	2 / 2
2	Chris Camozzi	2 / 11	9 / 20	0 / 0
2	Daniel Kelly	9 / 18	31 / 45	1 / 1
3	Chris Camozzi	21 / 43	23 / 45	0 / 0
3	Daniel Kelly	14 / 39	29 / 59	1 / 1

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19