Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Kelly won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1366

Elo1395

Daniel KellyvsAntonio Carlos JuniorUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · Saturday, March 19, 2016Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Daniel Kelly won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:36

Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsAntonio Carlos Junior: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Kelly at +385 American odds

+$385 profit

$485 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Kelly has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
Antonio Carlos Junior has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Kelly

Red Corner

Antonio Carlos Junior

Blue Corner

+385

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-485

(83%)

1366

Elo

1395

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel KellyMetricAntonio Carlos Junior

3.62

Strikes / min

1.95

4.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

61%

Strike defense

52%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

3.42

78%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel KellyAntonio Carlos Junior

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.2|Blue +29.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel KellyTargetAntonio Carlos Junior

By target zone

38% acc · 81%

Head

47% acc · 67%

100% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 27%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

22% acc · 22%

Distance

50% acc · 79%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

57% acc · 70%

Ground

83% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Kelly rounds

even

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:02

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Round 2Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:37

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:35

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 88

Sig Strikes

33 / 62

28.3%

Sig Str %

59%

57 / 112

Total Strikes

52 / 87

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

4:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	7 / 11	25 / 35	1 / 1
1	Daniel Kelly	0 / 2	2 / 4	0 / 0
2	Antonio Carlos Junior	22 / 45	23 / 46	1 / 6
2	Daniel Kelly	14 / 41	22 / 50	0 / 0
3	Antonio Carlos Junior	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 2
3	Daniel Kelly	23 / 45	33 / 58	0 / 1

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11