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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1388

Elo1494

Daniel CormiervsStipe MiocicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 4:09

Style matchupDaniel Cormier: Well-roundedvsStipe Miocic: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Cormier has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stipe Miocic has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Cormier

Red Corner

Stipe Miocic

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1388

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'4"

182.88 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Cormier

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18

vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20

latest

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

vs Francis Ngannou · Jan 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel CormierMetricStipe Miocic

4.25

Strikes / min

4.67

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

54%

Strike defense

52%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.74

80%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel CormierStipe Miocic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.2|Blue +106.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel CormierTargetStipe Miocic

By target zone

162

67% acc · 90%

Head

46% acc · 70%

100% acc · 5%

Body

90% acc · 22%

91% acc · 6%

Leg

91% acc · 8%

By position

139

67% acc · 77%

Distance

102

52% acc · 83%

78% acc · 12%

Clinch

68% acc · 15%

78% acc · 12%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Cormier rounds

even

Stipe Miocic rounds

Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control2:44

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns0

Control0:13

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control0:05

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 4Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

181 / 263

Sig Strikes

123 / 229

69.3%

Sig Str %

53%

230 / 317

Total Strikes

135 / 244

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 3

25%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stipe Miocic	7 / 13	9 / 18	0 / 0
1	Daniel Cormier	37 / 46	71 / 83	1 / 2
2	Daniel Cormier	56 / 82	59 / 85	0 / 0
2	Stipe Miocic	46 / 82	48 / 84	0 / 0
3	Stipe Miocic	34 / 67	40 / 73	1 / 3
3	Daniel Cormier	57 / 86	69 / 100	0 / 1
4	Stipe Miocic	36 / 67	38 / 69	0 / 0
4	Daniel Cormier	31 / 49	31 / 49	0 / 0

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19