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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Cormier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1388

Elo1491

Daniel CormiervsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Cormier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Cormier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Cormier has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Cormier

Red Corner

Roy Nelson

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1388

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel CormierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19

vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20

latest

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel CormierMetricRoy Nelson

4.25

Strikes / min

2.18

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

54%

Strike defense

46%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.14

80%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33Δ 3.94 — meaningful gap-2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel CormierRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.0|Blue +103.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel CormierTargetRoy Nelson

By target zone

41% acc · 68%

Head

15% acc · 65%

87% acc · 18%

Body

25% acc · 6%

92% acc · 15%

Leg

83% acc · 29%

By position

46% acc · 80%

Distance

21% acc · 94%

80% acc · 16%

Clinch

25% acc · 6%

75% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Cormier rounds

even

Roy Nelson rounds

Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns3

Control2:31

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:20

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:01

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 148

Sig Strikes

17 / 82

53%

Sig Str %

19.3%

83 / 157

Total Strikes

26 / 91

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:52

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roy Nelson	2 / 14	4 / 16	0 / 0
1	Daniel Cormier	16 / 24	22 / 30	3 / 3
2	Roy Nelson	7 / 29	11 / 33	0 / 0
2	Daniel Cormier	27 / 57	29 / 59	0 / 2
3	Roy Nelson	8 / 39	11 / 42	0 / 0
3	Daniel Cormier	31 / 67	32 / 68	0 / 0

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18