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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Cormier won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1388

Elo1373

Daniel CormiervsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Cormier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:19

Style matchupDaniel Cormier: Well-roundedvsPatrick Cummins: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Cormier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Cormier has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Patrick Cummins has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Cormier

Red Corner

Patrick Cummins

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1388

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel CormierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19

vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20

latest

Patrick CumminsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

KOvs Ed Herman · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel CormierMetricPatrick Cummins

4.25

Strikes / min

4.26

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

54%

Strike defense

55%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

4.49

80%

Takedown defense

28%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel CormierPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.9|Blue -14.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel CormierTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

46% acc · 89%

Head

28% acc · 63%

100% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

22% acc · 22%

Distance

33% acc · 88%

83% acc · 28%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

69% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Cormier rounds

even

Patrick Cummins rounds

Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 37

Sig Strikes

8 / 22

48%

Sig Str %

36%

20 / 39

Total Strikes

8 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Patrick Cummins	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 3	0
1	Daniel Cormier	18 / 37	20 / 39	0 / 0	0

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13