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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Daniel Cormier won · SUB R2

Elo1388

Elo1481

Daniel CormiervsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Cormier won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:14

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Daniel Cormier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Cormier has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Daniel Cormier has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Derrick Lewis has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Cormier

Red Corner

Derrick Lewis

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1388

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel CormierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19

vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20

latest

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel CormierMetricDerrick Lewis

4.25

Strikes / min

2.46

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

54%

Strike defense

39%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

0.55

80%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel CormierDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -93.7|Blue +93.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel CormierTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

73% acc · 84%

Head

22% acc · 50%

100% acc · 11%

Body

33% acc · 25%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

67% acc · 21%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

78% acc · 74%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Cormier rounds

even

Derrick Lewis rounds

Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:10

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 25

Sig Strikes

4 / 13

78%

Sig Str %

55%

42 / 54

Total Strikes

5 / 14

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derrick Lewis	3 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Cormier	14 / 19	35 / 45	2 / 2	0
2	Derrick Lewis	1 / 10	1 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Daniel Cormier	5 / 6	7 / 9	2 / 2	1

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31