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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Cormier won · SUB R3

Elo1388

Elo1491

Daniel CormiervsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Cormier won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:53

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Daniel Cormier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Cormier has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Cormier

Red Corner

Dan Henderson

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+525

(16%)

1388

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel CormierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19

vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20

latest

Dan Henderson

oldest →

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15

KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel CormierMetricDan Henderson

4.25

Strikes / min

2.44

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

54%

Strike defense

51%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.52

80%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel CormierDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -102.8|Blue +102.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel CormierTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

55% acc · 70%

Head

8% acc · 17%

94% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

24% acc · 8%

Distance

23% acc · 50%

Clinch

67% acc · 33%

73% acc · 92%

Ground

50% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Cormier rounds

even

Dan Henderson rounds

Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:44

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control4:20

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:10

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 80

Sig Strikes

6 / 18

60.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

131 / 173

Total Strikes

12 / 25

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:14

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Henderson	5 / 11	8 / 14	0 / 1	0
1	Daniel Cormier	11 / 22	26 / 38	1 / 1	0
2	Dan Henderson	0 / 5	2 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Daniel Cormier	25 / 34	65 / 75	1 / 1	1
3	Dan Henderson	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Daniel Cormier	14 / 24	40 / 60	1 / 1	1

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11