← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Daniel Cormier won · S-DEC R5

Elo1388

Elo1430

Daniel CormiervsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Cormier won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Cormier: Well-roundedvsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Daniel Cormier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alexander Gustafsson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Cormier

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1388

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'5"

182.88 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel CormierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19

vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20

latest

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel CormierMetricAlexander Gustafsson

4.25

Strikes / min

4.03

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

54%

Strike defense

51%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.53

80%

Takedown defense

83%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel CormierAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.7|Blue +42.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel CormierTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

111

46% acc · 79%

Head

43% acc · 73%

50% acc · 8%

Body

61% acc · 19%

86% acc · 13%

Leg

90% acc · 8%

By position

41% acc · 61%

Distance

102

46% acc · 85%

75% acc · 34%

Clinch

50% acc · 13%

86% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Cormier rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:03

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:26

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

1Knockdowns

Round 4Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 5Daniel Cormier edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

140 / 283

Sig Strikes

120 / 254

51.2%

Sig Str %

43.2%

219 / 364

Total Strikes

130 / 264

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 7

33.3%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:32

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Gustafsson	5 / 21	7 / 23	0 / 1
1	Daniel Cormier	14 / 22	56 / 66	1 / 1
2	Alexander Gustafsson	27 / 60	30 / 63	1 / 2
2	Daniel Cormier	28 / 53	36 / 61	0 / 3
3	Alexander Gustafsson	33 / 58	34 / 59	0 / 0
3	Daniel Cormier	36 / 64	45 / 73	0 / 1
4	Daniel Cormier	31 / 75	33 / 77	0 / 0
4	Alexander Gustafsson	37 / 68	37 / 68	0 / 3
5	Alexander Gustafsson	18 / 47	22 / 51	0 / 1
5	Daniel Cormier	31 / 69	49 / 87	0 / 0

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17