Flyweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Barez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1490

Daniel BarezvsVictor AltamiranoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Daniel Barez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Barez: Well-roundedvsVictor Altamirano: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Victor Altamirano wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Daniel Barez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Altamirano at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Barez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Barez has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Altamirano (52.9%).
Victor Altamirano has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Barez

Red Corner

Victor Altamirano

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1474

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel BarezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Jul 23

SUBvs Andre Lima · Mar 25

DECvs Luis Gurule · May 26

latest

Victor AltamiranoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Feb 22

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Aug 22

vs Vinicius Salvador · Mar 23

vs Tim Elliott · Jun 23

vs Felipe dos Santos · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel BarezMetricVictor Altamirano

3.65

Strikes / min

4.58

5.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

50%

Strike defense

53%

1.93

TDs / 15 min

2.88

80%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.30Δ 3.06 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel BarezVictor Altamirano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Barez(4 fights)Victor Altamirano(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.2|Blue +16.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel BarezTargetVictor Altamirano

By target zone

38% acc · 51%

Head

27% acc · 39%

82% acc · 27%

Body

52% acc · 39%

83% acc · 22%

Leg

83% acc · 21%

By position

50% acc · 91%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Barez rounds

even

Victor Altamirano rounds

Round 1Daniel Barez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:09

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Daniel Barez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 130

Sig Strikes

71 / 177

52.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

78 / 142

Total Strikes

76 / 184

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Victor Altamirano	15 / 43	20 / 50	0 / 0
1	Daniel Barez	22 / 34	33 / 46	0 / 0
2	Victor Altamirano	21 / 55	21 / 55	0 / 1
2	Daniel Barez	24 / 50	24 / 50	0 / 0
3	Victor Altamirano	35 / 79	35 / 79	0 / 0
3	Daniel Barez	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0

Daniel Barez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Victor Altamirano

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6