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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Luis Gurule won · Decision R3
Elo1474
Elo1448
Luis Gurule

Daniel BarezvsLuis GuruleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Luis Gurule won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Barez: Well-roundedvsLuis Gurule: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Barez wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Luis Gurule wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Luis Gurule enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Daniel Barez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Barez
Red Corner
VS
Luis Gurule
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1474
Elo
1448
37
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'5"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Barez
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Jul 23
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Sep 24
L
SUBvs Andre Lima · Mar 25
latest
Luis GuruleL4 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25
L
vs Jesus Aguilar · Sep 25
L
vs Alden Coria · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Rei Tsuruya · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel BarezMetricLuis Gurule
3.65
Strikes / min
4.47
5.95
Strikes absorbed / min
4.74
50%
Strike defense
59%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
0.58
80%
Takedown defense
58%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.30Δ 2.03 — meaningful gap-0.27
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301453147514981520← oldermost recent →
Daniel Barez(4 fights)Luis Gurule(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +25.2|Blue -25.2
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +343.0|Blue -343.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Daniel Barez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3

Luis Gurule

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights5