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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Andre Lima won · SUB R3
Elo1474
Elo1518
Andre Lima

Daniel BarezvsAndre LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Saturday, March 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Lima won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:05

Style matchupDaniel Barez: Well-roundedvsAndre Lima: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Andre Lima wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Andre Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Lima at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Barez
Red Corner
VS
Andre Lima
Blue Corner
+380
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-490
(83%)
1474
Elo
1518
37
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Barez
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Jul 23
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Sep 24
L
DECvs Luis Gurule · May 26
latest
Andre Lima
oldest →
W
vs Igor Severino · Mar 24
W
vs Mitch Raposo · Jun 24
W
vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 24
L
DECvs Kevin Borjas · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel BarezMetricAndre Lima
3.65
Strikes / min
4.06
5.95
Strikes absorbed / min
2.49
50%
Strike defense
57%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
1.36
80%
Takedown defense
75%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.30Δ 3.87 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1546Strikes3.6 vs 4.1Takedowns1.9 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.60 vs 1.10Form0.5 vs 1.0
Daniel BarezAndre Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601483150515281550← oldermost recent →
Daniel Barez(4 fights)Andre Lima(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -44.3|Blue +44.3
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel BarezTargetAndre Lima

By target zone

21
32% acc · 64%
Head
59
60% acc · 55%
8
89% acc · 24%
Body
23
85% acc · 21%
4
100% acc · 12%
Leg
26
79% acc · 24%

By position

32
42% acc · 97%
Distance
90
64% acc · 83%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
16
94% acc · 15%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daniel Barez rounds
0
even
3
Andre Lima rounds
Round 1Andre Lima edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:17
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 2Andre Lima edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
56Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:57Control
Round 3Andre Lima edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 79
Sig Strikes
108 / 159
31%
Sig Str %
65.7%
34 / 80
Total Strikes
161 / 220
1 / 5
TDs
2 / 2
16.7%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
4:50

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andre Lima47 / 7448 / 750 / 00
1Daniel Barez26 / 5026 / 501 / 20
2Andre Lima56 / 7776 / 1011 / 10
2Daniel Barez6 / 226 / 220 / 20
3Andre Lima5 / 837 / 441 / 11
3Daniel Barez1 / 72 / 80 / 10

Daniel Barez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3

Andre Lima

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights5