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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1482

Dan StittgenvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:13

Style matchupDan Stittgen: Well-roundedvsStephen Thompson: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Dan Stittgen wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Stittgen at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Dan Stittgen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stephen Thompson has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dan Stittgen has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stephen Thompson has a 11cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Stittgen

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1352

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

180 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Stittgen

oldest →

vs Marcelo Guimaraes · Jul 12

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan StittgenMetricStephen Thompson

2.97

Strikes / min

4.05

4.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

37%

Strike defense

54%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

0.23

100%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap+1.05

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Stittgen(2 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.9|Blue +130.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan StittgenTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

39% acc · 41%

20% acc · 13%

Body

78% acc · 32%

58% acc · 88%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 91%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Stittgen rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 22

Sig Strikes

22 / 38

36%

Sig Str %

57%

8 / 22

Total Strikes

22 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephen Thompson	22 / 38	22 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Dan Stittgen	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0	0

Dan Stittgen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21