Middleweight

3 Rounds

Trevor Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1379

Dan MillervsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trevor Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Miller: Submission grapplervsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Trevor Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Miller

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1355

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Miller

oldest →

vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10

vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11

vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12

KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13

latest

Trevor SmithL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan MillerMetricTrevor Smith

2.03

Strikes / min

3.29

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

49%

Strike defense

51%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.70

47%

Takedown defense

60%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan MillerTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Miller(8 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.6|Blue +23.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +602.0|Blue -602.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan MillerTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

23% acc · 40%

Head

62% acc · 80%

93% acc · 52%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

28% acc · 52%

Distance

45% acc · 29%

92% acc · 48%

Clinch

82% acc · 18%

Ground

84% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Miller rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:12Control

Round 2Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:09Control

Round 3Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 59

Sig Strikes

51 / 76

31.7%

Sig Str %

67.3%

29 / 63

Total Strikes

149 / 180

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

11:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevor Smith	15 / 27	36 / 51	0 / 2	0
1	Dan Miller	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 1	1
2	Trevor Smith	18 / 25	55 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Miller	4 / 14	6 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Trevor Smith	18 / 24	58 / 65	1 / 1	0
3	Dan Miller	1 / 6	3 / 8	0 / 0	0

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12