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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Dan Miller won · SUB R3

Elo1355

Elo1351

Dan MillervsRicardo FunchUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Dan Miller won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:12

Style matchupDan Miller: Submission grapplervsRicardo Funch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dan Miller wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Dan Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Miller at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Miller enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dan Miller threatens submissions; Ricardo Funch has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Ricardo Funch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Miller

Red Corner

Ricardo Funch

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1355

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan MillerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10

vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11

vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11

KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15

latest

Ricardo FunchL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claude Patrick · Jun 10

KOvs Mike Pyle · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan MillerMetricRicardo Funch

2.03

Strikes / min

2.61

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

49%

Strike defense

40%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.24

47%

Takedown defense

60%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03evenly matched on net striking-0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan MillerRicardo Funch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Miller(8 fights)Ricardo Funch(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.5|Blue -3.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan MillerTargetRicardo Funch

By target zone

55% acc · 70%

Head

48% acc · 36%

88% acc · 26%

Body

58% acc · 10%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

95% acc · 54%

By position

50% acc · 54%

Distance

42% acc · 35%

89% acc · 30%

Clinch

97% acc · 42%

82% acc · 16%

Ground

100% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Miller rounds

even

Ricardo Funch rounds

Round 1Ricardo Funch edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:18

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 2Ricardo Funch edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:30

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:37Control

Round 3Dan Miller edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 92

Sig Strikes

72 / 107

59%

Sig Str %

64.3%

81 / 118

Total Strikes

90 / 127

0 / 4

TDs

2 / 8

TD %

19.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

6:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ricardo Funch	27 / 50	36 / 60	0 / 1	0
1	Dan Miller	20 / 38	29 / 47	0 / 4	0
2	Ricardo Funch	38 / 44	43 / 50	1 / 4	0
2	Dan Miller	7 / 14	14 / 21	0 / 0	2
3	Ricardo Funch	7 / 13	11 / 17	1 / 3	0
3	Dan Miller	30 / 40	38 / 50	0 / 0	1

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Ricardo Funch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3