Middleweight

3 Rounds

Nate Marquardt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1363

Dan MillervsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Nate Marquardt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Miller: Submission grapplervsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Nate Marquardt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Miller

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

+285

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-315

(76%)

1355

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10

vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12

KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15

latest

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan MillerMetricNate Marquardt

2.03

Strikes / min

2.71

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

49%

Strike defense

55%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.87

47%

Takedown defense

70%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan MillerNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Miller(8 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.6|Blue +7.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan MillerTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

21% acc · 70%

Head

58% acc · 87%

67% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 4%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

24% acc · 80%

Distance

49% acc · 51%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

77% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Miller rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:10

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:50

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 38

Sig Strikes

47 / 78

32.3%

Sig Str %

60.7%

36 / 65

Total Strikes

75 / 110

2 / 6

TDs

3 / 3

41.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:00

Ctrl Time

7:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Marquardt	7 / 11	23 / 29	2 / 2	0
1	Dan Miller	2 / 4	9 / 12	1 / 4	1
2	Nate Marquardt	19 / 31	22 / 34	1 / 1	0
2	Dan Miller	5 / 22	8 / 25	1 / 1	1
3	Nate Marquardt	21 / 36	30 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Dan Miller	3 / 12	19 / 28	0 / 1	0

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14