Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Mein won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1491

Dan MillervsJordan MeinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Jordan Mein won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:42

Style matchupDan Miller: Submission grapplervsJordan Mein: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dan Miller wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Jordan Mein wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Miller at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Mein has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jordan Mein has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Miller

Red Corner

Jordan Mein

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1355

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Miller

oldest →

vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10

vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11

vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15

latest

Jordan MeinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Alves · Jan 15

vs Emil Meek · Dec 16

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 17

vs Erick Silva · Dec 17

vs Alex Morono · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan MillerMetricJordan Mein

2.03

Strikes / min

3.35

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

49%

Strike defense

69%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.56

47%

Takedown defense

66%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan MillerJordan Mein

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Miller(8 fights)Jordan Mein(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.2|Blue +136.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan MillerTargetJordan Mein

By target zone

15% acc · 36%

Head

51% acc · 86%

50% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 55%

Clinch

72% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Miller rounds

even

Jordan Mein rounds

Round 1Jordan Mein edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:34

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 37

Sig Strikes

29 / 53

29%

Sig Str %

54%

11 / 37

Total Strikes

29 / 53

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Mein	29 / 53	29 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Dan Miller	11 / 37	11 / 37	1 / 1	1

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Jordan Mein

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9