Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dan Miller won · SUB R2

Elo1355

Elo1490

Dan MillervsJohn SalterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Dan Miller won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:53

Style matchupDan Miller: Submission grapplervsJohn Salter: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: John Salter wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Dan Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Salter at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Salter has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Salter has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors John Salter (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Miller

Red Corner

John Salter

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11

vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12

KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15

latest

John Salter

oldest →

KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan MillerMetricJohn Salter

2.03

Strikes / min

1.68

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

1.68

49%

Strike defense

68%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

2.85

47%

Takedown defense

66%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan MillerJohn Salter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Miller(8 fights)John Salter(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.1|Blue +135.1

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan MillerTargetJohn Salter

By target zone

25% acc · 74%

Head

37% acc · 86%

75% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 81%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Miller rounds

even

John Salter rounds

Round 1John Salter edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 2Dan Miller edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:06

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 74

Sig Strikes

21 / 52

30%

Sig Str %

36.5%

23 / 74

Total Strikes

29 / 62

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Salter	17 / 39	25 / 49	2 / 2	0
1	Dan Miller	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 1	1
2	John Salter	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 1	0
2	Dan Miller	8 / 27	8 / 27	0 / 0	1

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

John Salter

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2