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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dan Ige won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1469

Dan IgevsNate LandwehrUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Dan Ige won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Ige: Well-roundedvsNate Landwehr: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Nate Landwehr wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Dan Ige wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Landwehr at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Landwehr has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Ige

Red Corner

Nate Landwehr

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1485

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan IgeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Lopes · Jun 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Oct 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 26

latest

Nate LandwehrL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Lingo · Mar 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Jul 25

KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan IgeMetricNate Landwehr

3.60

Strikes / min

5.55

3.56

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

56%

Strike defense

51%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.73

56%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan IgeNate Landwehr

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Ige(10 fights)Nate Landwehr(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.1|Blue -16.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan IgeTargetNate Landwehr

By target zone

43% acc · 69%

Head

34% acc · 73%

61% acc · 22%

Body

54% acc · 18%

80% acc · 9%

Leg

70% acc · 9%

By position

46% acc · 89%

Distance

33% acc · 74%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 24%

57% acc · 5%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Ige rounds

even

Nate Landwehr rounds

Round 1Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:19

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 184

Sig Strikes

74 / 195

45.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

88 / 184

Total Strikes

74 / 195

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Landwehr	12 / 44	12 / 44	0 / 2
1	Dan Ige	14 / 45	14 / 45	0 / 0
2	Nate Landwehr	30 / 69	30 / 69	0 / 1
2	Dan Ige	41 / 78	41 / 78	0 / 0
3	Nate Landwehr	32 / 82	32 / 82	0 / 1
3	Dan Ige	33 / 61	33 / 61	0 / 0

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10