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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melquizael Costa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1485

Elo1564

Dan IgevsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:56

Style matchupDan Ige: Well-roundedvsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Ige

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

+198

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1485

Elo

1564

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Ige

oldest →

KOvs Andre Fili · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Jun 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Oct 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

latest

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Julian Erosa · May 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan IgeMetricMelquizael Costa

3.60

Strikes / min

4.38

3.56

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

2.00

56%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan IgeMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Ige(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.3|Blue +78.3

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan IgeTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

40% acc · 29%

Head

35% acc · 47%

67% acc · 29%

Body

78% acc · 37%

100% acc · 43%

Leg

60% acc · 16%

By position

64% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 68%

Clinch

80% acc · 21%

Ground

33% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Ige rounds

even

Melquizael Costa rounds

Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:31

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

19 / 40

63%

Sig Str %

47%

12 / 16

Total Strikes

26 / 48

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

33%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melquizael Costa	19 / 40	26 / 48	1 / 1	0
1	Dan Ige	7 / 11	12 / 16	1 / 3	0

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9