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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dan Ige won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1400

Dan IgevsKevin AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, June 22, 2019Greenville, South Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Dan Ige won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Ige: Well-roundedvsKevin Aguilar: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Dan Ige wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Dan Ige wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Ige at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Aguilar has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Ige

Red Corner

Kevin Aguilar

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1485

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan IgeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Lopes · Jun 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Oct 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 26

latest

Kevin AguilarL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18

vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19

KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20

vs Charles Rosa · Jun 20

vs Tucker Lutz · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan IgeMetricKevin Aguilar

3.60

Strikes / min

3.96

3.56

Strikes absorbed / min

4.81

56%

Strike defense

52%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.16

56%

Takedown defense

78%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan IgeKevin Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Ige(10 fights)Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +84.9|Blue -84.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan IgeTargetKevin Aguilar

By target zone

51% acc · 73%

Head

25% acc · 64%

75% acc · 17%

Body

56% acc · 30%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

49% acc · 62%

Distance

24% acc · 64%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

83% acc · 15%

78% acc · 30%

Ground

64% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Ige rounds

even

Kevin Aguilar rounds

Round 1Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:06

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:55

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:06

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 125

Sig Strikes

33 / 104

65.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

92 / 146

Total Strikes

65 / 136

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:07

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Aguilar	9 / 29	18 / 38	0 / 0
1	Dan Ige	27 / 47	45 / 65	0 / 2
2	Kevin Aguilar	9 / 18	32 / 41	0 / 0
2	Dan Ige	13 / 14	16 / 17	1 / 1
3	Kevin Aguilar	15 / 57	15 / 57	1 / 1
3	Dan Ige	31 / 64	31 / 64	0 / 1

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Kevin Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6