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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julio Arce won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1504

Dan IgevsJulio ArceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Julio Arce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Ige: Well-roundedvsJulio Arce: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julio Arce at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Ige

Red Corner

Julio Arce

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1485

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan IgeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Lopes · Jun 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Oct 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 26

latest

Julio Arce

oldest →

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan IgeMetricJulio Arce

3.60

Strikes / min

4.36

3.56

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

56%

Strike defense

68%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.46

56%

Takedown defense

96%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.31

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Ige(10 fights)Julio Arce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.5|Blue +18.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan IgeTargetJulio Arce

By target zone

19% acc · 43%

Head

33% acc · 83%

35% acc · 17%

Body

69% acc · 15%

78% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

32% acc · 94%

Distance

33% acc · 85%

18% acc · 6%

Clinch

57% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Ige rounds

even

Julio Arce rounds

Round 1Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:40

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:33

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:03

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 113

Sig Strikes

72 / 201

29%

Sig Str %

35.3%

36 / 116

Total Strikes

87 / 216

1 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

5.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julio Arce	23 / 55	23 / 55	0 / 0
1	Dan Ige	5 / 30	5 / 31	1 / 6
2	Julio Arce	20 / 63	33 / 76	0 / 0
2	Dan Ige	13 / 38	14 / 40	0 / 5
3	Julio Arce	29 / 83	31 / 85	0 / 0
3	Dan Ige	17 / 45	17 / 45	0 / 2

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10