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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Diego Lopes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1549

Dan IgevsDiego LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Ige: Well-roundedvsDiego Lopes: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(82.5%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Lopes at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Ige has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Ige

Red Corner

Diego Lopes

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-298

(75%)

1485

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan IgeL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Fili · Feb 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Oct 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 26

latest

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan IgeMetricDiego Lopes

3.60

Strikes / min

3.83

3.56

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

56%

Strike defense

45%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.88

56%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan IgeDiego Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Ige(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.2|Blue +64.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan IgeTargetDiego Lopes

By target zone

51% acc · 81%

Head

43% acc · 65%

80% acc · 10%

Body

57% acc · 16%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 18%

By position

45% acc · 57%

Distance

45% acc · 78%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

71% acc · 20%

75% acc · 36%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Ige rounds

even

Diego Lopes rounds

Round 1Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:10Control

Round 3Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control1:39

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 77

Sig Strikes

49 / 100

54.3%

Sig Str %

53.7%

67 / 103

Total Strikes

90 / 143

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

4:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Lopes	22 / 47	23 / 48	0 / 0	1
1	Dan Ige	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 1	0
2	Diego Lopes	12 / 16	51 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Ige	8 / 12	17 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Diego Lopes	15 / 37	16 / 38	1 / 3	0
3	Dan Ige	25 / 41	41 / 57	0 / 0	0

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9