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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1510

Dan HookervsNasrat HaqparastUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker

Red Corner

Nasrat Haqparast

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1484

Elo

1510

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricNasrat Haqparast

4.82

Strikes / min

6.36

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

6.00

49%

Strike defense

63%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.34

77%

Takedown defense

86%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HookerNasrat Haqparast

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hooker(10 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.9|Blue +25.9

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetNasrat Haqparast

By target zone

27% acc · 36%

Head

30% acc · 63%

84% acc · 37%

Body

82% acc · 33%

83% acc · 27%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 75%

Distance

37% acc · 85%

93% acc · 19%

Clinch

67% acc · 15%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hooker rounds

even

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:36

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control2:57

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:31

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 153

Sig Strikes

27 / 69

48%

Sig Str %

38.3%

177 / 261

Total Strikes

35 / 77

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

41.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:04

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nasrat Haqparast	7 / 21	7 / 21	0 / 0
1	Dan Hooker	26 / 63	30 / 67	0 / 1
2	Nasrat Haqparast	11 / 27	19 / 35	0 / 1
2	Dan Hooker	29 / 56	59 / 86	1 / 4
3	Nasrat Haqparast	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0
3	Dan Hooker	18 / 34	88 / 108	2 / 2

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15