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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chandler won · KO/TKO

Elo1484

Elo1454

Dan HookervsMichael ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Michael Chandler won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Michael Chandler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hooker at -134 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dan Hooker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Michael Chandler has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dan Hooker has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
Dan Hooker has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker

Red Corner

Michael Chandler

Blue Corner

-134

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1484

Elo

1454

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Michael ChandlerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricMichael Chandler

4.82

Strikes / min

4.04

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

49%

Strike defense

43%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

1.96

77%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HookerMichael Chandler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hooker(10 fights)Michael Chandler(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.0|Blue -30.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetMichael Chandler

By target zone

0% acc

Head

71% acc · 71%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 24%

67% acc · 100%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

64% acc · 41%

Clinch

Ground

77% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hooker rounds

even

Michael Chandler rounds

Round 1Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 19

Sig Strikes

17 / 24

42%

Sig Str %

70%

8 / 19

Total Strikes

17 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chandler	17 / 24	17 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Dan Hooker	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0	0

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7