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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · SUB R3

Elo1484

Elo1500

Dan HookervsMarc DiakieseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Saturday, December 30, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:42

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsMarc Diakiese: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc Diakiese at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker

Red Corner

Marc Diakiese

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1484

Elo

1500

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Marc Diakiese

oldest →

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23

vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricMarc Diakiese

4.82

Strikes / min

2.54

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

49%

Strike defense

52%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

3.29

77%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HookerMarc Diakiese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hooker(10 fights)Marc Diakiese(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.6|Blue +15.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetMarc Diakiese

By target zone

19% acc · 18%

Head

26% acc · 38%

30% acc · 18%

Body

44% acc · 17%

79% acc · 65%

Leg

42% acc · 46%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hooker rounds

even

Marc Diakiese rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:56

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Marc Diakiese edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 40

Sig Strikes

24 / 69

43%

Sig Str %

36%

24 / 48

Total Strikes

41 / 87

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 5

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marc Diakiese	6 / 28	6 / 28	0 / 2	0
1	Dan Hooker	7 / 18	8 / 19	1 / 1	0
2	Marc Diakiese	9 / 21	26 / 39	0 / 2	0
2	Dan Hooker	5 / 12	11 / 19	1 / 2	0
3	Marc Diakiese	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 1	0
3	Dan Hooker	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	1

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14