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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jason Knight won · U-DEC R3
Elo1484
Dan Hooker
Elo1369
Jason Knight

Dan HookervsJason KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Jason Knight won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsJason Knight: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jason Knight wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Jason Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Knight at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Dan Hooker has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
  • Dan Hooker has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker
Red Corner
VS
Jason Knight
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1484
Elo
1369
36
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HookerL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22
W
vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24
L
SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26
latest
Jason KnightL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17
L
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17
L
vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17
L
vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18
L
vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricJason Knight
4.82
Strikes / min
2.95
4.94
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
49%
Strike defense
51%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
1.31
77%
Takedown defense
47%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1502Strikes31.2 vs 52.0Takedowns0.2 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.50Form0.3 vs 0.3
Dan HookerJason Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Dan Hooker(10 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +115.5|Blue -115.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetJason Knight

By target zone

43
50% acc · 91%
Head
50
29% acc · 85%
1
20% acc · 2%
Body
8
73% acc · 14%
3
33% acc · 6%
Leg
1
50% acc · 2%

By position

47
48% acc · 100%
Distance
55
31% acc · 93%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
25% acc · 2%
0
0% acc
Ground
3
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dan Hooker rounds
0
even
3
Jason Knight rounds
Round 1Jason Knight edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:34
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:04Control
Round 2Jason Knight edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:20Control
Round 3Jason Knight edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:08
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
47 / 100
Sig Strikes
59 / 185
46%
Sig Str %
29.3%
58 / 111
Total Strikes
80 / 208
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 13
—
TD %
55.3%
0
Sub Att
4
1
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
4:52

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Knight14 / 5915 / 602 / 21
1Dan Hooker17 / 2824 / 350 / 00
2Jason Knight7 / 2526 / 462 / 33
2Dan Hooker6 / 178 / 190 / 00
3Jason Knight38 / 10139 / 1020 / 80
3Dan Hooker24 / 5526 / 570 / 00

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights24

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9