← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1484

Elo1466

Dan HookervsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:28

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hooker at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Dan Hooker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dan Hooker has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
Dan Hooker has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1484

Elo

1466

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricGilbert Burns

4.82

Strikes / min

3.16

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

49%

Strike defense

52%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

2.04

77%

Takedown defense

53%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HookerGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hooker(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.4|Blue -18.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

52% acc · 55%

Head

31% acc · 38%

100% acc · 18%

Body

50% acc · 8%

86% acc · 27%

Leg

70% acc · 54%

By position

61% acc · 86%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hooker rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns2

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 34

Sig Strikes

13 / 28

64%

Sig Str %

46%

22 / 34

Total Strikes

13 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gilbert Burns	13 / 28	13 / 29	0 / 1	0
1	Dan Hooker	22 / 34	22 / 34	0 / 0	1

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24