← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1484

Elo1488

Dan HookervsClaudio PuellesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:06

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsClaudio Puelles: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Puelles at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Hooker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Claudio Puelles has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dan Hooker has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker

Red Corner

Claudio Puelles

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1484

Elo

1488

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Arnold Allen · Mar 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Claudio PuellesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 21

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Apr 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24

vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricClaudio Puelles

4.82

Strikes / min

1.54

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

49%

Strike defense

48%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

3.29

77%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HookerClaudio Puelles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hooker(10 fights)Claudio Puelles(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.9|Blue +3.9

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetClaudio Puelles

By target zone

24% acc · 28%

Head

8% acc · 20%

81% acc · 45%

Body

60% acc · 60%

62% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

41% acc · 83%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hooker rounds

even

Claudio Puelles rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:11

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:57

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 63

Sig Strikes

5 / 18

44.5%

Sig Str %

19%

37 / 73

Total Strikes

5 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Claudio Puelles	0 / 5	0 / 5	0 / 2	1
1	Dan Hooker	10 / 27	16 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Claudio Puelles	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 6	0
2	Dan Hooker	19 / 36	21 / 38	0 / 0	1

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8