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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benoit Saint Denis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1484

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Dan HookervsBenoit Saint DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:45

Style matchupDan Hooker: Pressure fightervsBenoit Saint Denis: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(85.3%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Hooker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Benoit Saint Denis has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hooker

Red Corner

Benoit Saint Denis

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-400

(80%)

1484

Elo

1546

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Hooker

oldest →

KOvs Arnold Allen · Mar 22

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

latest

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

KOvs Renato Moicano · Sep 24

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HookerMetricBenoit Saint Denis

4.82

Strikes / min

5.62

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

49%

Strike defense

42%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

4.19

77%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HookerBenoit Saint Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hooker(10 fights)Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.0|Blue +62.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HookerTargetBenoit Saint Denis

By target zone

59% acc · 63%

Head

73% acc · 86%

67% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

64% acc · 93%

Distance

63% acc · 21%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

91% acc · 10%

Ground

80% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hooker rounds

even

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:22

35Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:06

62Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 47

Sig Strikes

97 / 127

64.5%

Sig Str %

76%

51 / 68

Total Strikes

170 / 205

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

6:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benoit Saint Denis	35 / 46	62 / 73	2 / 6	0
1	Dan Hooker	26 / 41	34 / 49	0 / 0	1
2	Benoit Saint Denis	62 / 81	108 / 132	0 / 3	2
2	Dan Hooker	4 / 6	17 / 19	0 / 1	1

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13