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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dan Henderson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1368

Dan HendersonvsHector LombardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Dan Henderson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:27

Model Prediction: Hector Lombard wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Dan Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hector Lombard at -325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Henderson

Red Corner

Hector Lombard

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-325

(76%)

1491

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HendersonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16

latest

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Mar 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HendersonMetricHector Lombard

2.44

Strikes / min

3.02

2.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

51%

Strike defense

53%

1.52

TDs / 15 min

1.69

57%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HendersonHector Lombard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Henderson(10 fights)Hector Lombard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.9|Blue -122.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HendersonTargetHector Lombard

By target zone

36% acc · 69%

Head

58% acc · 96%

0% acc

Body

33% acc · 4%

80% acc · 31%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 69%

Distance

52% acc · 57%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

60% acc · 26%

100% acc · 15%

Ground

67% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Henderson rounds

even

Hector Lombard rounds

Round 1Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:15Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Dan Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 31

Sig Strikes

23 / 41

42%

Sig Str %

48.5%

23 / 41

Total Strikes

45 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

2:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hector Lombard	20 / 33	42 / 55	2 / 2	2
1	Dan Henderson	5 / 16	15 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Hector Lombard	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Henderson	8 / 15	8 / 15	0 / 0	0

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11