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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gegard Mousasi won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Dan Henderson
Elo1491
Gegard Mousasi

Dan HendersonvsGegard MousasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:10

Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gegard Mousasi at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Gegard Mousasi has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Henderson
Red Corner
VS
Gegard Mousasi
Blue Corner
+380
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-430
(81%)
1491
Elo
1491
55
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Henderson
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15
L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15
W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16
L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16
latest
Gegard MousasiW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16
W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16
W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16
W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HendersonMetricGegard Mousasi
2.44
Strikes / min
3.75
2.70
Strikes absorbed / min
1.21
51%
Strike defense
68%
1.52
TDs / 15 min
1.59
57%
Takedown defense
59%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1475 vs 1503Strikes31.8 vs 40.0Takedowns1.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.38 vs 0.50Form-0.4 vs -0.2
Dan HendersonGegard Mousasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Dan Henderson(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +104.0|Blue -104.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HendersonTargetGegard Mousasi

By target zone

1
13% acc · 25%
Head
3
14% acc · 75%
0
Body
0
3
100% acc · 75%
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

4
36% acc · 100%
Distance
3
14% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dan Henderson rounds
0
even
1
Gegard Mousasi rounds
Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
4 / 11
Sig Strikes
4 / 22
36%
Sig Str %
18%
4 / 11
Total Strikes
5 / 24
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gegard Mousasi4 / 225 / 240 / 00
1Dan Henderson4 / 114 / 110 / 00

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12