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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Dan Hardy won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1352
Duane Ludwig

Dan HardyvsDuane LudwigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dan Hardy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:51

Model Prediction: Duane Ludwig wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Dan Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Duane Ludwig at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dan Hardy is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Duane Ludwig has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Duane Ludwig has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Dan Hardy has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hardy
Red Corner
VS
Duane Ludwig
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1490
Elo
1352
44
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Hardy
oldest →
L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10
L
KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10
L
vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11
L
SUBvs Chris Lytle · Aug 11
W
vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12
latest
Duane LudwigL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10
W
vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10
W
vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11
L
SUBvs Josh Neer · Jan 12
L
KOvs Che Mills · Sep 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HardyMetricDuane Ludwig
2.46
Strikes / min
4.62
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
51%
Strike defense
57%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
0.43
35%
Takedown defense
59%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.98Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1433 vs 1500Strikes27.6 vs 41.1Takedowns0.4 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.38 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -0.1
Dan HardyDuane Ludwig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Dan Hardy(6 fights)Duane Ludwig(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.5|Blue -138.5
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +159.0|Blue -159.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HardyTargetDuane Ludwig

By target zone

15
60% acc · 83%
Head
8
31% acc · 47%
1
50% acc · 6%
Body
5
63% acc · 29%
2
100% acc · 11%
Leg
4
100% acc · 24%

By position

10
53% acc · 56%
Distance
7
28% acc · 41%
4
80% acc · 22%
Clinch
10
77% acc · 59%
4
80% acc · 22%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dan Hardy rounds
0
even
0
Duane Ludwig rounds
Round 1Dan Hardy edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:28
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 29
Sig Strikes
17 / 38
62%
Sig Str %
44%
19 / 31
Total Strikes
17 / 39
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:28
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Duane Ludwig17 / 3817 / 390 / 00
1Dan Hardy18 / 2919 / 310 / 20

Dan Hardy

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6

Duane Ludwig

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6