Welterweight

5 Rounds

Chris Lytle won · SUB R3

Elo1490

Dan HardyvsChris LytleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Chris Lytle won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:16

Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Chris Lytle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Lytle at -106 American odds

+$94 profit

$194 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Lytle has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Dan Hardy has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hardy

Red Corner

Chris Lytle

Blue Corner

-104

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-106

(51%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HardyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10

KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10

vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11

KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12

vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12

latest

Chris Lytle

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10

vs Matt Serra · Sep 10

vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HardyMetricChris Lytle

2.46

Strikes / min

3.76

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.70

35%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HardyChris Lytle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hardy(6 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HardyTargetChris Lytle

By target zone

23% acc · 87%

Head

39% acc · 64%

71% acc · 8%

Body

74% acc · 35%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

25% acc · 93%

Distance

119

47% acc · 94%

36% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hardy rounds

even

Chris Lytle rounds

Round 1Chris Lytle edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Lytle edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:04

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Chris Lytle edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:03

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 238

Sig Strikes

127 / 271

24.7%

Sig Str %

46%

63 / 240

Total Strikes

134 / 278

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Lytle	42 / 92	43 / 93	0 / 0	0
1	Dan Hardy	23 / 80	23 / 80	0 / 0	0
2	Chris Lytle	51 / 101	56 / 106	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Hardy	25 / 87	27 / 89	0 / 1	0
3	Chris Lytle	34 / 78	35 / 79	0 / 0	1
3	Dan Hardy	13 / 71	13 / 71	1 / 1	0

Dan Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Chris Lytle

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4