Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Condit won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1494
Carlos Condit

Dan HardyvsCarlos ConditUFC Prediction Result

UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · Saturday, October 16, 2010London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:27

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hardy
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1490
Elo
1494
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan HardyW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10
L
vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11
L
SUBvs Chris Lytle · Aug 11
W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12
W
vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12
latest
Carlos Condit
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18
W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20
W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21
L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HardyMetricCarlos Condit
2.46
Strikes / min
3.66
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
51%
Strike defense
55%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
0.59
35%
Takedown defense
38%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.98Δ 1.97 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1519Strikes29.8 vs 44.7Takedowns0.4 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.67Form-1.0 vs 1.0
Dan HardyCarlos Condit

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dan Hardy(6 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.4|Blue +3.4
Recent Form
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HardyTargetCarlos Condit

By target zone

5
17% acc · 56%
Head
10
28% acc · 38%
0
0% acc
Body
3
60% acc · 12%
4
44% acc · 44%
Leg
13
72% acc · 50%

By position

9
22% acc · 100%
Distance
24
42% acc · 92%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dan Hardy rounds
0
even
1
Carlos Condit rounds
Round 1Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
9 / 41
Sig Strikes
26 / 59
21%
Sig Str %
44%
9 / 41
Total Strikes
26 / 59
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Condit26 / 5926 / 590 / 00
1Dan Hardy9 / 419 / 410 / 00

Dan Hardy

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17